Pre-tourney Rankings
South Florida
American Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#120
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#122
Pace68.1#195
Improvement-2.1#272

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#204
First Shot-3.6#282
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#22
Layup/Dunks+0.6#160
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#333
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#300
Freethrows+3.1#11
Improvement+1.7#98

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#64
First Shot+2.0#110
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#2
Layups/Dunks+1.0#126
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#35
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#86
Freethrows-3.2#339
Improvement-3.8#326
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Away) - 76.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 4.00.0 - 4.0
Quad 1b0.0 - 2.00.0 - 6.0
Quad 22.0 - 5.02.0 - 11.0
Quad 36.0 - 1.08.0 - 12.0
Quad 410.8 - 1.218.8 - 13.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 348   Alabama A&M W 80-63 97%     1 - 0 -1.8 +0.1 -2.2
  Nov 12, 2018 140   Austin Peay W 74-70 OT 67%     2 - 0 +3.1 -12.0 +14.6
  Nov 16, 2018 179   Ohio W 73-46 67%     3 - 0 +26.0 -3.6 +27.3
  Nov 18, 2018 76   Georgetown L 73-76 OT 39%     3 - 1 +3.5 -5.2 +8.9
  Nov 21, 2018 323   Florida A&M W 69-59 94%     4 - 1 -3.7 -0.2 -2.8
  Nov 24, 2018 278   The Citadel L 81-84 89%     4 - 2 -12.5 -4.4 -8.0
  Nov 28, 2018 330   Stetson W 75-71 94%     5 - 2 -10.5 -3.9 -6.6
  Nov 30, 2018 136   Colgate W 73-63 65%     6 - 2 +9.5 -1.5 +11.2
  Dec 09, 2018 287   @ Charlotte W 67-59 77%    
  Dec 15, 2018 201   Appalachian St. W 76-69 80%     7 - 2 +1.7 -5.3 +6.7
  Dec 18, 2018 210   @ Florida International W 82-73 63%     8 - 2 +9.1 -4.6 +12.1
  Dec 21, 2018 349   Alcorn St. W 83-44 98%     9 - 2 +18.1 +4.9 +14.7
  Dec 29, 2018 219   Fairleigh Dickinson W 60-54 82%     10 - 2 +0.0 -13.0 +13.5
  Jan 02, 2019 107   Connecticut W 76-68 57%     11 - 2 1 - 0 +9.8 -0.5 +9.9
  Jan 05, 2019 121   @ Tulsa L 75-78 39%     11 - 3 1 - 1 +3.4 +3.6 -0.1
  Jan 09, 2019 282   Tulane W 66-48 89%     12 - 3 2 - 1 +8.3 -11.7 +19.6
  Jan 12, 2019 70   @ Temple L 80-82 OT 27%     12 - 4 2 - 2 +7.9 -0.1 +8.3
  Jan 15, 2019 32   @ Cincinnati L 74-82 15%     12 - 5 2 - 3 +6.7 +9.5 -2.8
  Jan 19, 2019 15   Houston L 60-69 19%     12 - 6 2 - 4 +4.0 -3.7 +7.5
  Jan 22, 2019 88   Wichita St. W 54-41 52%     13 - 6 3 - 4 +16.0 -13.7 +30.3
  Jan 26, 2019 261   @ East Carolina W 77-57 74%     14 - 6 4 - 4 +17.0 +9.2 +9.2
  Feb 02, 2019 58   Memphis W 84-78 42%     15 - 6 5 - 4 +11.5 +1.2 +9.4
  Feb 07, 2019 110   @ SMU W 67-66 37%     16 - 6 6 - 4 +8.0 +6.7 +1.5
  Feb 10, 2019 261   East Carolina W 72-68 OT 87%     17 - 6 7 - 4 -4.6 -1.8 -2.6
  Feb 13, 2019 48   @ Central Florida L 65-78 18%     17 - 7 7 - 5 +0.2 +5.3 -6.3
  Feb 16, 2019 70   Temple L 69-70 OT 47%     17 - 8 7 - 6 +3.4 -6.6 +10.1
  Feb 23, 2019 15   @ Houston L 59-71 9%     17 - 9 7 - 7 +6.6 +1.3 +4.3
  Feb 27, 2019 48   Central Florida L 63-75 35%     17 - 10 7 - 8 -4.4 +1.8 -7.5
  Mar 03, 2019 107   @ Connecticut L 58-60 36%     17 - 11 7 - 9 +5.3 -5.7 +10.8
  Mar 06, 2019 282   @ Tulane W 75-70 77%     18 - 11 8 - 9 +0.9 +1.8 -0.9
  Mar 10, 2019 110   SMU L 71-77 58%     18 - 12 8 - 10 -4.5 -2.3 -2.4
  Mar 14, 2019 107   Connecticut L 73-80 46%     18 - 13 -2.4 +4.3 -6.9
Projected Record 18.8 - 13.2 8.0 - 10.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 100.0% 100.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 76.5%
Lose Out 23.5%